Aurora Borealis in Manitoba
Canada · 49.75°, -97.93° · geomagnetic 58.0° · needs Kp 5
Tonight in Manitoba
20%
Peak chance of a visible display tonight, from the same model the Revon app runs. Manitoba needs Kp 5 to see anything at all, and tonight the forecast peaks at Kp 4.7. Short of the threshold, which is what most nights look like here.
Updated 2026-08-02 20:20 UTC
The next 30 nights in Manitoba
Every night to come, scored the same way as tonight. The best of the open week is Sunday 2 Aug at 20%. Not one of the seven reaches the Kp 5 that Manitoba needs, which is normal rather than unlucky — it averages 26.4 viable nights a year. The 23 nights past the seven-day window move with the 27-day solar rotation and are updated daily in the app.
Nights 8–30 unlock in the Revon app
See all 30 nights for Manitoba
Revon aurora model over the NOAA Kp forecast and 27-day outlook
How often the aurora borealis reaches Manitoba
26.4 nights a year, averaged across 10.0 years of records
| Storm level | Nights / year |
|---|---|
| Kp 4 | 83.4 |
| Kp 5 | 28.7 |
| Kp 6 | 9.3 |
| Kp 7 | 3.2 |
| Kp 8 | 1.2 |
NOAA planetary Kp, 2016-04-02 to 2026-03-30
Worth watching through the dark half of the year
Kp 5 is a moderate storm — not an everyday event, but common enough that a patient observer in Manitoba sees the aurora borealis most winters.
Hours of true darkness, month by month
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.6 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 11.9 |
Solar declination and hour angle at −18°
Nothing to see from June
Through those months the sun never falls more than 18° below the Manitoba horizon, so the sky never darkens fully. Plan around the darker half of the year.
Getting clear of the light
With 814,295 people around you, the sky over central Manitoba is Bortle 5. The glow hides anything but the brightest display, so the drive out matters more here than the forecast does.
- 5 km west — around Rural Municipality of Grey → Bortle 5
- 23 km west — around Rural Municipality of Grey → Bortle 4
Falchi 2016 World Atlas (DOI: 10.5880/GFZ.1.4.2016.001)
The months that actually deliver
Counting only nights that were both stormy enough and dark enough, September, March and May came out ahead in Manitoba. That is storm season and darkness overlapping — the equinoxes tend to be geomagnetically active, and the nights are already long by then.
Darkest nights of the coming year
A bright moon washes out a weak display as effectively as street lighting. These new moons fall inside the Manitoba viewing season.
- 13 Aug 2026
- 11 Sep 2026
- 11 Oct 2026
- 09 Nov 2026
- 09 Dec 2026
- 07 Jan 2027
- 06 Feb 2027
Where it is close to a certainty
If you would rather plan a trip than wait for a storm, the nearest place with genuinely frequent aurora is Yellowknife, 1,731 km north-north-west in Canada.
| Manitoba | Yellowknife | |
|---|---|---|
| Kp needed | 5 | 3 |
| Nights per year | 26.4 | 171.4 |
| Geomagnetic latitude | 58.0° | 68.6° |
Confirmed reports from this area
41 verified sightings were logged within 300 km of Manitoba between 2015-01-01 and 2016-12-31. Rare is not the same as impossible.
Aurorasaurus verified positive reports
Where the horizon opens up near Manitoba
The display sits low on the northern horizon, so what beats a better forecast is open ground facing that way. Height gets you above the town glow; water gives you an unbroken skyline. These are within a short drive of Manitoba.
- Norquay Beach — beach26.5 km north-north-west
- Rosedale Loop — lake27.4 km north-north-east
- Blacks Lake — lake30.0 km north-north-west
Places from GeoNames (CC BY 4.0)
The last nights it was visible here
Nights in the last decade when the storm was strong enough for Manitoba and the sky was dark enough to show it.
| Date | Peak |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | Kp 5.0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Kp 5.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Kp 6.67 |
| 2026-03-21 | Kp 6.0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Kp 7.0 |
NOAA planetary Kp
Aurora forecasts across Manitoba
All 3 places in Manitoba with a forecast page, and the Kp each one needs.
Know when it is worth going outside
Revon watches the Manitoba forecast and pushes an alert when the odds for tonight clear your threshold — no checking, no guessing.
Common questions about the aurora borealis in Manitoba
Can you see the aurora borealis from Manitoba?
Yes. On the last 10.0 years of NOAA Kp records, Manitoba had about 26.4 nights a year when the storm was strong enough and the sky dark enough at the same time.
What Kp index do you need to see the aurora borealis in Manitoba?
Kp 5. Manitoba sits at geomagnetic latitude 58.0°, and the auroral oval only reaches that far from the pole once activity hits Kp 5. Storms that size occur about 28.7 nights a year.
When is the best time of year to see the aurora borealis in Manitoba?
September, March and May. Those months scored highest once both conditions are counted together: geomagnetic activity and enough hours of real darkness. From June the sky over Manitoba never gets fully dark, so nothing is visible however strong the storm.
Where can you escape the light pollution near Manitoba?
The centre of Manitoba reads Bortle 5. The nearest sky at Bortle 4 is about 23 km west around Rural Municipality of Grey. On a marginal night that drive matters more than the forecast does.
Where is the nearest place to Manitoba with reliable aurora borealis?
Yellowknife, Canada — 1,731 km north-north-west. It needs only Kp 3 and averages 171.4 viable nights a year against 26.4 in Manitoba.
Nearby towns
Forecasts for places within reach of Manitoba.